Sean Davis, a consultant at SRI Consulting, points out that the current Japanese BDO market demand is declining at an average annual rate of 0.7%, and this trend will continue until at least 2011. As the production capacity of BDO and downstream products in other Asian countries is rapidly expanding, Japanese manufacturers will encounter fierce competition from these countries, especially Chinese producers.
The demand for European BDO market will increase at an average annual rate of 2% to 3% in the next few years, while the average annual growth rate in the US market will be 1% to 2%. According to Davies, the supply and demand of the US market has become increasingly tight in recent years, which will prompt it to increase its import volume. At the same time, the operating rate of BDO installations in the United States will remain at 90% or higher. In the past few years, some BDO installations in the United States have changed hands. For example, DuPont’s BDO installation in Texas has been classified as Invista in 2004 due to the company’s spin-off of its fiber business. In 2005, ISP bought BP's BDO device in Lema, USA.
In the coming years, the growth rate of BDO demand in the Middle East is similar to that of the United States, but there is almost no new capacity in the region. Saudi Basic Industries has recently decided not to participate in the previously announced polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) and related intermediate projects by Saudi Osos Petrochemicals. The project includes a set of 50,000-ton/year BDO units, Osos Petrochemical Company. Currently looking for other partners.
There are five major global BDO production processes, the most popular of which is BASF's Reppe process, which uses acetylene and formaldehyde as raw materials. Another widely used Davy process is the newly developed butane-maleic anhydride route. The patented process owned by Lyondell-Basell is based on propylene oxide. The BP/Lurgi Geminox process produces BDO directly from butane, and Mitsubishi Chemical uses butadiene/acetate technology to produce BDO.
According to Carlos Restrepo, vice president of industrial chemicals business at International Specialty Products, the current global BDO production capacity is approximately 1.37 million tons/year, and the operating rate of the plant is 85%. Production capacity is growing at an average annual rate of 6% to 7%. Among them, the average annual growth rate of the western hemisphere is 3% to 4%, and the average annual growth rate in Asia is about 8%, especially China's average annual growth rate is even more than 10%.
Restrepo also stated that all new projects to be put into production this year are located in Asia. These devices include South Korea's SK company’s 40,000-ton/year plant in Ulsan, South Korea; South Asia Plastic’s 40,000-ton plant in Taiwan, China; and Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd., which will open in the third quarter, in Xinjiang’s 60,000 tons/year. Year installation.
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