On May 26, the China Machinery Industry Federation and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the "China Automobile Association") released the latest list of the top 30 Chinese automobile industry. Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Automobile Association, said at the press conference. The factors restricting the growth of the automobile industry are expected to be alleviated through scientific development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Therefore, the 13th Five-Year Plan may become the best period for the development of China's automobile industry.
In this regard, Ye Shengji, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, agreed in an interview. He admitted that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China's auto industry still faced many difficulties, but because of the national "Belt and Road" policy, and "Made in China 2025" The favorable factors such as the landing of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period are undoubtedly an important period of opportunity for the development of China's automobile industry. Prior to this, at the China Automotive Forum held during the 2016 Beijing Auto Show, Li Daokui, a professor of economics at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management, also bluntly stated that the “13th Five-Year Plan†will be the best development for the Chinese automotive industry. period.
■The external environment is basically oriented. “The growth potential of China’s economy is relatively large. Although the Chinese economy is at the bottom of the U-shaped adjustment, the growth rate has slowed down, but the fundamentals are still positive.†Li Daokui said. In his view, China's per capita GDP is only one-fifth of that of developed countries, and there is huge room for development. The most important thing is that China is arrogantly called the "three good conditions" for economic development. First, China's political environment is stable, the government supports the steady development of the market economy; second, the human resources environment is continuously improving; and third, China maintains a good momentum of opening up to the outside world. Therefore, Li Daokui’s conclusion is that the average speed of China’s economic growth in the next five years should be close to 7% or even higher. And the economic structure will undergo revolutionary and fundamental changes. Ye Shengji also believes that China's economic resilience is good, its potential is sufficient, the room for maneuver is large, and the good supporting foundation and conditions for sustained economic growth have not changed. All this will become the most basic driving force for the upward development of China's auto industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
In addition, judging from the domestic automobile consumption market demand, there are currently more than 100 vehicles in China, but there is still a huge gap compared with developed countries. Ye Shengji pointed out that at present, the speed of urbanization in China is accelerating, the pace of infrastructure construction is maintained at a high level, and the income of residents continues to increase. In the process of upgrading the consumption structure, the role of automobiles as high-end consumption still exists. Dong Yang also believes that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the residential bank will become the main area of ​​people's consumption growth. Therefore, automobile products are the main force for expanding domestic demand, and China's automobile consumption market still has great potential.
Judging from the global economic development, although the auto market in emerging economies is still in a downturn, the auto market in developed economies has shown signs of recovery after undergoing deep adjustment. It is understood that the sales volume of the US auto market in 2014 and 2015 has basically recovered to the level before the economic crisis, and re-entered into the development stage of high production and sales of automobiles. Ye Shengji said that under the leadership of the developed economies dominated by the United States, the future global economic development will slowly recover, thus bringing a good external environment for the development of China's auto industry.
In addition to the slow recovery of the global economy, the implementation of the national “Belt and Road†strategy will also provide better external conditions for the Chinese auto industry to “go globalâ€. Dong Yang judged that during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, international capacity cooperation with overseas production and production as the main form will surely become a highlight of the Chinese automobile industry.
â– Management system reform injects a strong-hearted agent Judging whether the "13th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period for the development of the automobile industry cannot be determined simply by the speed of development, and management system reform and industrial structure optimization are more important.
According to incomplete statistics, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the central government departments promulgated 168 laws, regulations and policies concerning the automobile industry, including 21 items related to investment management, and 41 items related to environmental protection and energy conservation regulations. There are 33 new energy vehicles, including 24 enterprises and product management. Ye Shengji pointed out that during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China will further deepen the reform of the administrative management system, further transform the government functions, continue to promote the decentralization of power, integrate management, optimize services, and improve government efficiency, thus injecting a strong-hearted agent into the reform and development of the automobile industry. .
Dong Yang also stressed that China's auto industry policy environment will have favorable changes in three aspects. First, with the reform of the government departments, the situation of multi-head management and redundant management will be greatly improved, and the market main position of enterprises will be further strengthened. Second, the legalization management has been further strengthened. With the improvement and refinement of laws and regulations on the enhancement of products and the protection of consumer rights and interests in the event of product access, the unhealthy trend of “high law-abiding costs, low illegal costs, and bad money expelling good money†is expected to be corrected. Third, automobiles The taxation policies and regulations for the production and use of products will be significantly improved. The role of encouraging energy conservation and emission reduction and encouraging the rational use and consumption of automobiles will be greatly enhanced.
In addition, the speed of reform of state-owned auto companies during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is also worth looking forward to. At that time, China will form a group of large automobile enterprises with advantages. According to the requirements of the State Council, China's automobile state-owned enterprises are expected to achieve decisive results in important areas and key links of reform by 2020, and form a state-owned asset management system, modern enterprise system and market-oriented operation that are more in line with China's basic economic system and socialist market economy development requirements. mechanism. "The partial structure of state-owned capital is more reasonable, creating a large number of outstanding entrepreneurs with both ability and political integrity, good at management, and full of vitality, and cultivating a large number of state-owned enterprises with innovative capabilities and international competitiveness" will become China's auto industry in the "13th Five-Year Plan." The important goal of the period is to enhance the economic vitality, control, influence and risk resistance of China's automobile state-owned enterprises.
â– Technology upgrade promotes industrial progress At the same time as the management system reform, the industrial structure is also optimized and upgraded. The economic development has entered a new normal, the structural reform of the supply side and the slowdown of the growth of the automobile industry have brought new tasks to the development of the automobile industry. Therefore, the "13th Five-Year Plan" period has also become a critical period for industrial structure optimization and technology upgrading. And this is more meaningful in the industry.
"In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's auto companies have been in a state of catching up with the advanced level of foreign countries in the field of technology, but today it has been different. In the past, our catch-up was the dust that was raised by advanced people; now we have arrived. The front line is about to enter the frontier of technology.†Dong Yang is full of confidence in the technological progress of his own brand during the “13th Five-Year Plan†period. Li Daokui also stressed that in the next five years, the key work of China's auto industry will be to develop high-end. It can be foreseen that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, independent brands will produce more high-end products with advanced technology and excellent quality.
Although Dong Yang also admitted that China's own brand will continue to be under pressure from the joint venture automobile brand during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, he also said that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China's own brands have developed steadily and presented a thriving trend. The strength of the dominant auto brand is far from comparable in the past, and the ever-increasing technical level and product quality have been able to compete with the joint venture brand. Moreover, the domestic automobile consumer market is becoming more mature, consumers' blind enthusiasm for foreign brands is decreasing, and the recognition of Chinese brands will be greatly improved. In his view, the self-owned brand is expected to sing high and develop rapidly during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
In addition to the enhancement of the self-owned brand's own strength, the technology integration between industries will also bring revolutionary changes to the automotive industry. With the gradual formation of information technology, manufacturing technology, energy technology, material technology cross-integration, and deep penetration of technological innovation, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation have also provided opportunities for China's auto industry to become bigger and stronger.
First of all, under the theme of “safety, environmental protection and energy conservationâ€, the advantages of electric vehicles compared with traditional vehicles are gradually becoming more prominent. Dong Yang believes that after more than ten years of hard work, China has built a technical system of “three verticals and three horizontalsâ€, which has significantly narrowed the gap with the technological level of advanced countries. The government's emphasis on industrial development has accelerated the development speed of China's new energy vehicles. By formulating a national-level strategy and a complete policy support system, China has now developed into the world's largest electric vehicle market. At the enterprise level, in order to overcome technical difficulties, unprecedented cooperation between enterprises and industries is taking place. Combining these advantages, Dong Yang predicts that during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China is likely to rank among the world's first in terms of electric vehicles.
Secondly, with the rapid development of information technology such as communication technology, big data applications, and intelligent terminals, and the rapid integration with manufacturing and service industries, intelligence is not only reflected in the field of automobile design and manufacturing, but also intelligent transportation and vehicle networking have become solutions. The development direction of traffic safety, energy, environment and efficiency issues. Dong Yang proposed that in the field of intelligent networked vehicles, although China's automobile industry has a poor foundation and started late, we have two unique advantages: one is the advantage of the Internet; the other is the preference of Chinese consumers for smart products, as long as Applying these two advantages properly, China's auto industry will make significant progress in this field during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
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