Feng Shiliang, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, said that due to the high international oil prices and the acceleration of domestic economic development, prices of domestic chemical products will not rise and fall in 2007. The profits of the chemical industry are expected to continue to maintain a growth rate of more than 20%.
The statistics of the association show that in the first two months of this year, the production of China's petroleum and chemical industries continued to maintain a growth trend, market demand increased, and the prices of most products rose. Among the 65 (category) petroleum and chemical products that were tracked in an important manner, there were 54 types of production that had grown over the same period of last year. Among them, the output of some organic chemical raw materials and synthetic resins, synthetic fibers and other products increased very rapidly, while the production growth of natural gas and crude oil processing products slowed down, and the production of LNG, kerosene, and acetic acid products decreased compared with the same period of last year.
In addition, more than 60% of the prices of 151 chemical products that have been tracked are higher than last year. In inorganic, organic chemical raw materials, chemical fertilizers, synthetic resins, rubbers, and additives, except for the general increase in fertilizer prices, the other types of products have basically risen and fallen.
The statistics of the association also show that the cost of production in China's petroleum and chemical industries has increased, and the benefits have been affected. The main reason is that the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, and the price of coal and electricity rose, which increased the cost of downstream products such as organic raw materials, fine chemical products and synthetic materials. In addition, profit margins for high-energy-consuming industries such as ammonia, calcium carbide, soda ash and caustic soda are shrinking.
Feng Shiliang believes that in recent years, due to the huge market demand and improved industrial efficiency, the petrochemical industry has set off a climax of capacity expansion. From 2003 to 2005, the industry's investment in fixed assets increased by more than 30% for three consecutive years. In 2006, the fixed assets investment in China's petrochemical industry actually completed 519.5 billion yuan, an increase of 28.3% over the previous year. Especially in the central and western regions, many projects such as large-scale coal-to-metallurgy, chlor-alkali, calcium carbide, PVC, synthetic ammonia, etc. are planned, which intensify the pressure on energy, resources, and the environment. Some industries will also experience excess capacity. As the investment in fixed assets is too fast, the pressure for energy saving and environmental protection has increased, and the task of completing energy conservation and consumption reduction targets is very arduous. The petrochemical industry has a high proportion of high-energy-consuming industries. The goal of reducing energy consumption per million yuan per year by 4% is difficult to accomplish. At the same time, the petrochemical industry is also the focus of the Environmental Protection Agency's large-scale investigation of environmental risks. It is also difficult to achieve emission reduction targets.
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