Machinery industry started to pick up slowly

Since 2013, under the environment of the market downturn and increasing uncertainty of economic trends, China's machinery industry enterprises have actively promoted the adjustment of the industrial structure so that the overall economic performance of the industry has shown a slow recovery, moderate growth, and stable development.

According to statistics, from January to September, the growth rate of the value added of the machinery industry above the scale was slightly higher than that of the same period of last year, and was also higher than the national industrial level; not only did the accumulative growth rate of export delivery value from January to October achieved a slight recovery, the machinery industry 9 The monthly growth rate of imports in the month also turned negative, but the growth rate of exports declined. Among the 64 kinds of products counted by the monthly report of the China Machinery Industry Federation, from January to October, the cumulative output of 38 products increased year-on-year, accounting for 59.37% of all reported product varieties.

The Chamber of Commerce of the Machinery Industry Economic Analysis Conference held by the China National Aircraft Industry Association (CIMC) in the third quarter recently held that the quality of the machinery industry has improved in the third quarter, and the highlights of the transformation and upgrading have appeared from time to time. Although some bottlenecks restricting development still exist, they have improved. Experts agreed that the overall economy of the industry has started to pick up.

The growth rate of added value was higher than the national industrial level from January to September. The industrial added value of the above-scale machinery industry increased by 9.9% year-on-year, 0.4% higher than the previous month; 1.3% higher than the same period of last year, and also higher than the national industry (9.6 %)Level. Compared with the growth rate in the same period of last year, the main industries that increased by more than 5 percentage points were: modified automobile manufacturing, optical instruments and eyewear manufacturing, boiler and propulsion equipment manufacturing, automobile vehicle manufacturing and low-speed truck manufacturing.

The accumulative growth rate of export delivery value rebounded slightly from January to October. The export value of the entire industry was 1.455548 trillion yuan, up 1.18% year-on-year, 0.59 percentage points higher than the previous month, 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, and the export delivery value. The accumulative growth rate rebounded slightly for three consecutive months. In terms of different types of enterprises, private enterprises increased by 6.29% year-on-year, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous month. State-owned and foreign-funded enterprises decreased by 6.11% and 0.05% respectively, but the decline rate was narrowed by 0.66 and 0.7% from the previous month. Looking at the scale of the company, large-scale enterprises decreased by 1.33% year-on-year; medium-sized and small enterprises showed slow growth, with 3.47% and 3.69% respectively.

According to customs statistics, from January to September this year, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry totaled 495.289 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.98% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded slightly from January to August (0.89%), an increase of 0.09 percentage points. . Among them, exports reached 274.477 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 4.11% year-on-year; imports were 220.82 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points from January to August (-3.32%), and an accumulated import and export trade surplus of 53.665 billion U.S. dollars.

In September, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was USD 57.736 billion, which was a year-on-year increase of 1.65%. Among them, the export value was 31.173 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.11% year-on-year, down 6.57 percentage points from 7.68% in August; the import value was 26.564 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.28% from the same period of last year, and the growth rate went from negative to positive, increasing by 2.29 percentage points from the previous month. The monthly trade surplus was 4.609 billion. Dollars.

In September, the export growth rate of 12 industries fell in September. The export growth rate of the machinery industry fell 6.57 percentage points from August. In terms of sub-sectors, except for the year-on-year growth of the agricultural machinery industry's export growth, the remaining twelve The export growth rates of the two industries all declined. Among them, the growth rate of the export of the internal combustion engine industry fell by 27.75 percentage points from the previous month; followed by the heavy mining industry, the export growth rate fell by 20 percentage points from the previous month; at the same time, the construction machinery industry The export growth rate increased from 5.75% in the previous month to a decrease of 5% this month, a drop of 10.75 percentage points.

From January to September, the industry with the fastest decline in export growth from the previous month was the electrical and electronics industry, which fell by 0.94 percentage points from January to August; followed by the heavy mining industry, which fell 0.86 percentage points from January to August.

The trade in automotive and cable products was reversed from January to September. Among the 92 kinds of machinery industry import and export products, there were 60 trade surpluses and 32 products were in deficit. The top three products with cumulative trade surplus were: wire and cable 9.458 billion U.S. dollars, copiers 5.054 billion U.S. dollars and power tools 4.585 billion U.S. dollars, and the top three trade deficit products were: US$25.435 billion, four-wheel drive light SUVs (including spare parts) of US$16.5 billion and cars (including spare parts) of US$9.954 billion.

The output of the main products was better. Among the 64 main products of China National Machines Association, there were 38 cumulative year-on-year increases from January to October, accounting for 59.37% of all reported product varieties; there were 15 with double-digit growth. This accounted for 23.44% of all reported products; there were 26 types of products that produced less than last year, accounting for 40.63% of the reported products.

First, under the continuous drive of the national agricultural machinery subsidy policy, the output of medium tractors, small tractors, and harvesting machinery increased by 10.67%, 5.12%, and 2.13% year-on-year from January to October, but it still has different levels compared with the growth rate of the previous month. In the fall, medium-sized tractors fell faster and fell nearly 2 percentage points. Large-scale tractors decreased by 12.66% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous month.

Second, the output of excavation shovel transportation machinery and excavators from January to October decreased by 0.06% and 6.34% year-on-year, respectively, but the decline was narrowed by 2.02 and 2.57 percentage points from the previous month. The loaders and compactors grew by 2.38% and 7.13% year-on-year respectively, an increase of 2.07 and 1.89 percentage points from the previous month.

Third, the output of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools continued to decline, falling 1.33% and 3.36% year-on-year from January to October, respectively, of which the decline in metal-cutting machine tools narrowed by 1.03 percentage points from the previous month. Metal cutting tools increased by 9.90% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 2.15 percentage points from the previous month.

Fourth, from January to October, 19,372,400 automobiles were produced, an increase of 17.23% over the same period of last year. The growth rate showed a steady growth, and it has been maintained at more than 15% for 7 consecutive months. In terms of sub-models, the growth of multi-functional passenger cars and sports multi-purpose passenger vehicles was rapid, which was a year-on-year increase of 87.93% and 54.87% respectively, and that of basic passenger cars was 16.66%. The passenger car production decreased by 19.98% year-on-year.

Fifth, the metal smelting equipment, cranes and conveying machinery in heavy mining products increased by 8.07%, 8.15% and 17.34% respectively year-on-year. The mine-specific equipment and metal rolling equipment decreased by 5.67% and 4.85% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline in mine-specific equipment slightly larger than last month.

Sixth, the production of power generation equipment continued to be sluggish. From January to October, the output of power generation equipment was 104,226,800 kilowatts, which was a decrease of 2.31% year-on-year, of which turbine generators and wind turbines decreased by 4.53% and 0.92% year-on-year respectively; the year-on-year growth of hydroelectric generator sets It was unchanged from the previous month, which was 1.94%. Gas turbines and power station turbines grew rapidly, 13.53% and 29.06% year-on-year respectively.

In the next two years, the machinery industry is expected to achieve stable development. In the recent report on the operation of the machinery industry at the National Machinery Industry Economic Situation Report 2013, Cai Weici, Executive Vice President of China Machine Design, pointed out that from the stage of economic development, China’s economy has been The period of rapid growth shifts to the period of low-to-medium-term growth; the potential growth rate in the new period has been significantly reduced by the rapid growth of the ten years during the “Tenth Five-year” and “Eleventh Five-Year” periods, and it is no longer realistic to reproduce high-speed growth of more than 20% in the future. From the perspective of potential growth rates, the annual growth rate of GDP is estimated to be 7% to 8%, and the corresponding growth rate of the machinery industry should be 10% to 15%.

He believes that the total demand for mechanical products in the future is expected to maintain steady growth at a moderate rate, and no major changes will occur. In the following years, the machinery industry is expected to continue to maintain relatively stable and relatively low growth. It is expected that the growth rate of production and sales will generally be between 10% and 15%, the profit growth will be roughly around 10%, and the increase in export earnings will be estimated at 5%~10. %between.