In recent years, domestic automobile consumption has experienced rapid growth. However, environmental protection efforts have failed to keep pace with the increase in exhaust emissions in the city and the air quality has been deteriorating. The haze weather phenomenon has frequently forced the environmental protection agencies to impose higher requirements on the emission of pollutants from automobiles. It is reported that a few days ago the China Rubber Industry Association has organized and formulated the “Tire Industry Access Requirements†and decided to use green tires as a new benchmark for later industry access and product quality standards and strongly advocated the promotion. It is expected that the new regulations will be submitted to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the end of July and formally implemented at the beginning of August.
Green tires combine the advantages of high performance and environmental protection. Usually about 20% of the gasoline is consumed due to tire rolling resistance while the car is running. The so-called green tires are new types of radial tires that add new materials and apply new technologies that can effectively reduce rolling resistance and thus reduce energy consumption. According to statistics, green tires are 5% to 7% cheaper than ordinary radial tires, and the drop in fuel consumption will not only bring benefits to owners, but will also significantly reduce emissions, while adding new materials can also avoid the traditional tire caused by road wear caused by cancer The major drawback of distributing the material. Green tires are another major technological revolution after the tire industry has upgraded from biased tires to radial tires. It not only meets the new domestic environmental protection trend in the future, but also poses greater challenges to the tire industry's quality standards.
The trend of green tires will impact the industry in the short term. At present, the new green tire regulations to be introduced in China are basically the same as the tire export labeling laws implemented by the EU for China last year. The advantages of green tires compared to ordinary radial tires are mainly reflected in three aspects: rolling resistance, gripping performance in wetlands, and noise. Among them, improving grip performance and reducing noise in wetlands requires optimization of pattern design and skeleton materials, while reducing tire rolling resistance requires changing the tire tread rubber formulation and adding four key raw materials, namely SSBR, Rare Earths Butadiene rubber (Nd-BR), highly dispersed silica, and silane coupling agents. It can be foreseen that if companies want to transform and upgrade tire green standards, they will usher in the challenges of process technology and the digestion of new production costs. This means that the pace of capacity expansion in the tire industry will be limited, and even the existing capacity will face contraction risks, and more funds will be invested in product upgrades. In other words, once tire companies enter the upgrade mode, they will inevitably slow down the procurement of raw materials, and the weakening of short-term demand capacity will stretch Tianjiao to the inventory cycle.
Green tires are expected to be the new growth point for natural rubber. Although the industry's new regulations will have a greater impact on short-term tire companies and adversely affect natural rubber consumption, after the completion of industrial transformation and upgrading, the popularity of green tires is expected to trigger a new round of demand growth in the natural rubber market. At present, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, the United States, and Brazil have successively implemented the green tire labeling method. With the development of the situation, China will be upgraded from a normal radial tire to a green tire. It is understood that the green process of domestic radial tires will basically follow the first half of steel tires, after the full steel tires; first original tires, after the replacement of the tire; first voluntary, after the principle of mandatory. According to the plan, the domestic industrialization of green tires is still in a voluntary phase before 2017, and it will be transferred to the mandatory period starting in 2017. It is expected that the greening rate of semi-steel and steel in China will reach 30% and 12% respectively in 2015. By 2020, the greening rate of semi-steel and steel in China will reach 80% and 50% respectively, basically reaching the world level.
This means that "green environmental protection whirlwind" will gradually occupy the original tire and replace the tire market, "big shake-up" has brought about a bright future of new demand, and natural rubber is expected to rely on industrial upgrading to strengthen the pace of destocking. Although short-term natural rubber consumption is faced with difficulties in purchasing demand caused by the transformation and upgrading of downstream companies, in the long run, the immediate loss is expected to double in future compensation, and the continued momentum of new demand is expected to continue for 6-7 years.
At present, the domestic tire industry is facing the dual pressures of industrial restructuring and environmental protection. Natural rubber is also subject to the pains and difficulties brought about by the adjustment of the industrial chain. However, once the phoenix appears, the market will regain vitality. Green tires are expected to The new demand growth point for natural rubber started and boosted the price of rubber into the rising cycle.
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